Last Chance Saloon

Tonight sees the final televised Presidential debate between Barack Obama and John McCain. It may well be John McCain's last chance to land some telling blows on his opponent and close the consistent deficit in the polls being reported daily.

Of course, there's still time to find a 'game-changing' moment after tonight, but with a likely audience of around 60 million Americans he is unlikely to be able to have an impact on so may voters - especially those swing voters. There is a chance the impact might be a negative one but at this stage it's looking like he's got nothing to lose.

To his credit, in recent days McCain seems to have become embarrassed by the ever more personal attacks of some of his more extreme (or ignorant?) supporters. His immediate put down at a rally of a woman he called Obama 'an Arab' was commendable. But if he isn't going to push the personal assassination of Obama does he have anything left?

The challenge he faces tonight is reported in Time today:

With less than three weeks to go before Election Day, the Republican presidential nominee faces a daunting overall task. He is so far behind in the national polls and in most key individual states that it is difficult to assemble a single combination of Electoral College votes to get him to the necessary 270. Despite Monday's unprecedented stock market rebound and Tuesday's campaign announcement introducing a new McCain economic policy proposal, voters largely continue to blame the Republicans for the financial crisis and the gloomy mood of an unstable nation. At the same time, the impact of Obama's massive fundraising advantage has hit full force, flooding battleground states with television ads, direct mail, and well-paid armies of local organizers. As Obama's lead has held (and even grown in some polls) pundits and political strategists in both parties have begun to assertively predict an easy Obama win, possibly producing a self-fulfilling wave.

I'm afraid I have to agree with the conclusion the article comes to and that is the only thing McCain may have left to fight for is his reputation:

McCain's best bet is to ignore all the advice he is getting about what he needs to accomplish and how he should comport himself: don't try to be all things to all strategists. Instead, he should say what he truly believes about his own proposals, about Obama's qualifications, and about the challenges the country faces, without an over-crafted strategy. His debate performances have improved, and he is always his most likeable, and most formidable when he uses his head and speaks from the heart. To slightly tweak the wise old song, dignity is just another word for nothing left to lose. McCain might lose the election, but he doesn't have to lose his reputation in the process.

McCain's task was always going to be an uphill battle.  He was only grudgingly adopted as his party's Presidential nominee in the absence of any other genuinely credible candidate (would it have been different had Rudy Giuliani had better strategic advice, or Fred Thompson had entered the race earlier?). He was facing an opponent with formidable organisation and money (and that would not have different had he been facing Hillary Clinton). He has been presented with a domestic and foreign policy legacy from George Bush that gives him and his party nothing to boast about.

If John McCain was to be President of the USA, then maybe the time was eight years ago when he was beaten in the nomination race by Bush.  But maybe he has something up his sleeve even more surprising (and it will need to be more effective and better thought out) than Sarah Palin. Maybe Obama will make a gaffe so big it will see a reversal in the polls.  But he must worry that the big maybe is tonight's debate - maybe Hampstead N.Y. is the last chance saloon...