McCain's Prank?

UN Failure in DRC

It is with great regret that I read today's reports of the escalation of violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The situation there is dreadful and shows just how ineffective the United Nations can be.

But this situation has been building for so long now, there can be no excuse for the international community and the United Nations has failed to do whatever has been necessary to ensure peace, and more importantly protect the people who are now currently suffering.

For too long, what has been going on in DRC has been largely ignored and the long standing ineffectiveness of the United Nations mission in DRC has been overlooked. When the world was focussing on the wrongs of the American soldiers with respect to the Abu Ghraib prison controversy in Iraq, the abuses committed by UN soldiers in DRC were totally glossed over. When they finally did make the news, the UN downplayed the significance.  But abuses are abuses and this reflected a severe lack of judgement and responsibility of the UN towards the DRC mission.

Several years on and the chickens have come home to roost. The UN's commitment and deployment in DRC although seemingly large in number (I believe 17,000 was the latest number) was woefully short of what was required for such a large area and for such a violent conflict.

It is time the United Nations ponders upon it's role in the world. If it is to address conflicts, then deployments must be whole hearted and not taken demonstrations. It's failure to ensure that the peacekeeping force in DRC was effective in doing it's job - peacekeeping - has now exacerbated the problem severely and left the UN looking totally impotent. It has lost the goodwill and respect of the every people it was mean to protect.

The UN has been made to look foolish in the DRC, but in the scheme of things that doesn't really matter.  What does matter is people. The people the UN is meant to safeguard. A human catastrophe has been allowed to take place in the DRC on the UN's watch. For that to have happened is disgraceful...

Trick or Treat

(Guest post from David Beresford)

What a treat to hear Comrade Osborne on the Today programme giving a detailed plan for the Conservative solution to the current economic difficulties. Quite clearly Osborne wants to put his personal tricky troubles behind him, but speeches without substance are somewhat pointless. Apart from suggesting that council tax should be frozen and that a tax rise on family cars next year should be scrapped, he said nothing. Sorry that is not true. Five times he suggested that the Bank of England should get on with its job and cut interest rates. The Bank of England does not set interest rates, that is the role of the monetary policy committee. I hope, as a potential chancellor, he understands the difference.

Colbert Endorses Obama

Where's the Action?

After the bail out plan for the banks, it strikes me that there has been little in the way of real action from the Government in helping individuals and business.  Every time I read a report of Alistair Darling or Gordon Brown, they seem to be urging and discussing action but doing very little.

They are urging the energy companies to reduce petrol prices, the banks to maintain lending levels to each other and to small businesses, mortgage-lenders not to repossess homes so quickly, local government to advance capital spending programmes.  But urging is simply just not enough.

The Government is in a state of disarray now (and this is why David Cameron and the Tories should be patient and not panic about being crowded out of the news right now).  Any action they are looking to take, as in today's announcement of loans form the European Investment Bank, seems to be at the supra-national level.  There is no admission that the Government finances are in no position to do much at the national level. It is now stymied by Government expenditure over the last 10 years to maintain false employment levels through vastly increasing public sector jobs and by it's expenditure and commitment to the two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  It makes announcements only to reel back on them when placed under scrutiny (such as the capital spending proposal which they were later forced to admit  they were only suggesting bringing planned expenditure forward - quite how capital processes planned for future years can be advanced they haven't yet managed to explain).

But culpability on the lack of action lays not solely with the Government.  In a week where the Federal Reserve in the US have again reduced interest rates, where is the action by the Bank of England?  I have long stated that the 'independence' of the Bank of England is a myth - it is not independent if it's economic aims and targets are set by the Government.  Interest Rates should be a lot lower than they are now - the greatest danger to the economy for the last 6 months has been the threat of bank collapses and recession, not inflation.  But significant action on interest rates as not been taken.

The MPC can not wait month to month to decide whether any action over interest rates should be taken. It has to be seen to be pro-active not reactionary in doing something with respect to interest rates. The crisis is so dynamic, monthly changes in interest rates are not good enough.

What is needed is proper action that the general public can understand.  We need honesty about plans and abut expenditure. We need admissions of where mistakes have been made. We need clear statements of where the Government can have a proper impact and where it can not.

But right now I would suggest the following immediate action:

1) Reduce interest rates by 1 percentage point

2) Enforce interbank lending between British Banks as a price for the guarantees and funding in place

3) Legislate for a moratorium on house repossessions for a year

4) 1% cut in small business corporation tax

5) 6 month employers NIC contributions holiday for small businesses

6) Announce the abandonment of ID cards and the related planned expenditure

I am not too concerned with a short term increase in expenditure (or reduction on tax revenue) as this can be paid for in a few years time by the sale of the stakes the Government has taken in RBS and Lloyds/HBOS.

The important thing is that we need action not words now...

But the Law Won

It is such a shame that that people who make every effort to do what's right are not served well by the law of the land, and those who oversee it. The outcome of Debbie Purdey's action in the High Court today, whereby she has failed to get clarification the law on assisted suicide is totally unsatisfactory for two reasons.

First, as Debbie Purdey herself asks:

How can we make sure that we act within the law if they won't tell us in what circumstances they would prosecute?

What use is a 47 year old law on our statute books (or for that matter any law) if it is impossible to know whether your are abiding by it or not? While clarification may be extremely difficult, the issue is of such public interest that failure even to offer guidance as to how a process could be initiated whereby the law could be clarified is a moral dereliction of duty by the Law Lords. Washing their hands at this stage helps no one.

But more importantly it is a failure by the Law Lords on a human level to Debbie Purdey. By failing to provide guidance to this wonderfully brave woman, who is only trying to make sure her husband is not ensnared in criminal proceedings by her desire for a peaceful and dignified end to her life, the Law Lords have made the remaining time she has with her husband is far more traumatic than it need me.

The Law Lords should have realised that one person's struggle for some dignity was far more important than a strict following of their own role in interpreting law. Something is wrong with our legal system when unaccountable appointed Law Lords let down a desperate woman. Yes, the Law Lords are there to make judgement on the law, but more importantly they are there to serve us all and to see that justice is done...

Credit Crisis is God's Punishment

They really can't help it. As sure as eggs is eggs, if there is a problem in this country then at some point a representative of one of this country's religions will tell us that it is 'God's punishment'. Well, guess what? It's the Anglican Bishop of Lewes' turn to try and use people's misfortune to promote his religious views.  The Telegraph reports him writing that:

I believe that God ultimately has allowed this crisis for good. Our nation, like all the western nations, has become consumed with materialism. It has a stranglehold on our lives. We have found our security in 'securities' and have failed to grasp that nothing is permanent other than God. Our confidence has been misplaced. Something was needed to shake that and that is what we are experiencing. If this shakes our confidence in mammon (money) and forces us back to our creator and redeemer it will have been worth it. That should be our prayers as Christians. We may all have to suffer a bit, but God is an expert at bringing good out of sad, difficult, even evil situations.

At a time when the Anglican Church is in crisis itself, with threats of splits and talk of disestablishment, naked plays for moral superiority like this do nothing to enhance it's reputation. It may play well internally, but all religions do themselves a great disservice to get involved with economic and political issues in terms like this.

So, Rt Rev Benn, Bishop of Lewes, I ask you whether God allowed this for good? Where did misplaced confidence lay here?

Perhaps instead of lecturing the public on the morality of the credit crisis, the Anglican Church should consider it's own role and that of God in issues closer to home...

4:13 Dream

I don't plan to post often about this blogger's music preferences, but today I am a happy blogger as The Cure have released their new album 4:13 Dream.  Cure albums do not come around too often these days, so days like this are to be savoured.

Any further posts today will be suitably inspired by the great Robert Smith.

"For my part I know nothing with certainty... but the sight of the stars makes me dream" (Van Gogh)

Are Standards at Cambridge University Slipping?

This picture is from outside Sidney Sussex College, Cambridge.  The full article from the Daily Telegraph is here...

Palin Wigs

Thanks to David Beresford for finding this on Reuters.

The Benefits of an Internship

Thanks to Guido Fawkes for publishing this in his blog...

Taxi for Peston

(Guest post from David Beresford)

Christmas is coming the goose isn't getting a bonus. The financial crisis is so boring and there is nothing new to report. So BBC London news last night dedicated a five minute segment to the story of one cab driver. This poor soul had recently purchased a newly designed white taxi for around £35k and was bemoaning the plight of the London cabbie. A few things sprung to mind. Firstly in this economic downturn why would anyone buy a brand new taxi? Secondly why would he buy a vehicle that didn't look like a traditional black cab? Quite possibly the reason that his earnings have started to plummet is that nobody knows he is a cab? 

Another taxi driver gave a better appraisal of the economic situation than that Peston chap, who reappeared to discuss the collapse of Hungary, Ukraine, Iceland and the Isle of White. The afore mentioned taxi driver summed matters up as follows, to precis: "sometimes there are bad days, but so far they haven't added up to bad weeks, but if they do then I am concerned that the bad weeks may become bad months. And if, in a year, there are more than six bad months, well, that is a bad year. "

Thank goodness Spooks is back. However the bomb that killed Adam didn't really look as though it caused that much destruction. The decision to drive the vehicle for two minutes to a random open space seemed a little contrived. Possibly Adam had just had enough of that Hermione Norris woman. 

Powell Endorses Obama

Former Secretary of State Colin Powell endorsed Sen. Barack Obama for President today in an interview on the NBC programme, Meet the Press. This is a hugely significant development, for Colin Powell is a mighty figure in US politics and respected across all party lines (except maybe the neo-conservatives who he felt let him down after his backing for the war in Iraq). His endorsement is likely to have an impact on undecided voters.

Once seen as a possible Presidential candidate himself, it must have been difficult for him to come out in favour of a candidate outside his own party. But his endorsement is all the more powerful for the words he chose to use in his support for Obama and in his criticisms of John McCain and Sarah Palin. I strongly encourage you to take the time and read them:

I know both of these individuals very well now. I've known John for 25 years as your setup said. And I've gotten to know Mr. Obama quite well over the past two years. Both of them are distinguished Americans who are patriotic, who are dedicated to the welfare of our country. Either one of them, I think, would be a good president. I have said to Mr. McCain that I admire all he has done. I have some concerns about the direction that the party has taken in recent years. It has moved more to the right than I would like to see it, but that's a choice the party makes. And I've said to Mr. Obama, "You have to pass a test of do you have enough experience, and do you bring the judgment to the table that would give us confidence that you would be a good president."

And I've watched him over the past two years, frankly, and I've had this conversation with him. I have especially watched over the last six of seven weeks as both of them have really taken a final exam with respect to this economic crisis that we are in and coming out of the conventions. And I must say that I've gotten a good measure of both. In the case of Mr. McCain, I found that he was a little unsure as to deal with the economic problems that we were having and almost every day there was a different approach to the problem. And that concerned me, sensing that he didn't have a complete grasp of the economic problems that we had. And I was also concerned at the selection of Governor Palin. She's a very distinguished woman, and she's to be admired; but at the same time, now that we have had a chance to watch her for some seven weeks, I don't believe she's ready to be president of the United States, which is the job of the vice president. And so that raised some question in my mind as to the judgment that Senator McCain made.

On the Obama side, I watched Mr. Obama and I watched him during this seven-week period. And he displayed a steadiness, an intellectual curiosity, a depth of knowledge and an approach to looking at problems like this and picking a vice president that, I think, is ready to be president on day one. And also, in not just jumping in and changing every day, but showing intellectual vigor. I think that he has a, a definitive way of doing business that would serve us well. I also believe that on the Republican side over the last seven weeks, the approach of the Republican Party and Mr. McCain has become narrower and narrower. Mr. Obama, at the same time, has given us a more inclusive, broader reach into the needs and aspirations of our people. He's crossing lines--ethnic lines, racial lines, generational lines. He's thinking about all villages have values, all towns have values, not just small towns have values.

And I've also been disappointed, frankly, by some of the approaches that Senator McCain has taken recently, or his campaign ads, on issues that are not really central to the problems that the American people are worried about. This Bill Ayers situation that's been going on for weeks became something of a central point of the campaign. But Mr. McCain says that he's a washed-out terrorist. Well, then, why do we keep talking about him? And why do we have these robocalls going on around the country trying to suggest that, because of this very, very limited relationship that Senator Obama has had with Mr. Ayers, somehow, Mr. Obama is tainted. What they're trying to connect him to is some kind of terrorist feelings. And I think that's inappropriate.

Now, I understand what politics is all about. I know how you can go after one another, and that's good. But I think this goes too far. And I think it has made the McCain campaign look a little narrow. It's not what the American people are looking for. And I look at these kinds of approaches to the campaign and they trouble me. And the party has moved even further to the right, and Governor Palin has indicated a further rightward shift. I would have difficulty with two more conservative appointments to the Supreme Court, but that's what we'd be looking at in a McCain administration. I'm also troubled by, not what Senator McCain says, but what members of the party say. And it is permitted to be said such things as, "Well, you know that Mr. Obama is a Muslim." Well, the correct answer is, he is not a Muslim, he's a Christian. He's always been a Christian. But the really right answer is, what if he is? Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country? The answer's no, that's not America. Is there something wrong with some seven-year-old Muslim-American kid believing that he or she could be president? Yet, I have heard senior members of my own party drop the suggestion, "He's a Muslim and he might be associated terrorists." This is not the way we should be doing it in America.

I feel strongly about this particular point because of a picture I saw in a magazine. It was a photo essay about troops who are serving in Iraq and Afghanistan. And one picture at the tail end of this photo essay was of a mother in Arlington Cemetery, and she had her head on the headstone of her son's grave. And as the picture focused in, you could see the writing on the headstone. And it gave his awards--Purple Heart, Bronze Star--showed that he died in Iraq, gave his date of birth, date of death. He was 20 years old. And then, at the very top of the headstone, it didn't have a Christian cross, it didn't have the Star of David, it had crescent and a star of the Islamic faith. And his name was Kareem Rashad Sultan Khan, and he was an American. He was born in New Jersey. He was 14 years old at the time of 9/11, and he waited until he can go serve his country, and he gave his life. Now, we have got to stop polarizing ourself in this way. And John McCain is as nondiscriminatory as anyone I know. But I'm troubled about the fact that, within the party, we have these kinds of expressions.

So, when I look at all of this and I think back to my Army career, we've got two individuals, either one of them could be a good president. But which is the president that we need now? Which is the individual that serves the needs of the nation for the next period of time? And I come to the conclusion that because of his ability to inspire, because of the inclusive nature of his campaign, because he is reaching out all across America, because of who he is and his rhetorical abilities--and we have to take that into account--as well as his substance--he has both style and substance--he has met the standard of being a successful president, being an exceptional president. I think he is a transformational figure. He is a new generation coming into the world--onto the world stage, onto the American stage, and for that reason I'll be voting for Senator Barack Obama.

He speaks authoritatively. He speaks with great insight into the challenges we're facing of a military and political and economic nature. And he is surrounding himself, I'm confident, with people who'll be able to give him the expertise that he, at the moment, does not have. And so I have watched an individual who has intellectual vigor and who dives deeply into issues and approaches issues with a very, very steady hand. And so I'm confident that he will be ready to take on these challenges on January 21st.

It will also not only electrify our country, I think it'll electrify the world.

My view, as I have said previously on this blog, is that the reputation both domestically and internationally of the office of the President of the United States has so been damaged by the Bush years, and by implication the reputation of the nation as a whole, that a significant change is needed. It is time for a handover to a man who can inspire a new generation of Americans. For a man who can show the world that America can be a positive force in the 21st Century. 

Don't get me wrong, Obama is not perfect. He has his (many) faults and some of his policies may well turn out to be quite problematical. But he is by far the best candidate on offer.  Powell suggests that an Obama Presidency may well electrify the US and electrify the world.  Let's hope he is right, for right now the world needs it...

Daniel James

I just wanted to quote the words today of the parents of Daniel James, the 23 year old who committed suicide in a clinic in Switzerland:

His death was an extremely sad loss for his family, friends and all those that care for him but no doubt a welcome relief from the 'prison' he felt his body had become and the day-to-day fear and loathing of his living existence, as a result of which he took his own life

I hope his friends and family are left in peace now to grieve without further interest from the media, police or campaigners. It was an intensely difficult and personal decision that was made by those involved. It should not be for anyone else to judge them for it...

Hollow Words

"I wouldn't dream of disagreeing with Her Majesty's Coroner, but the facts are..."

Those are the hollow words of the Commander of Joint Helicopter Command, Rear Admiral Tony Johnstone-Burt  in an interview with the BBC today responding to the coroner Andrew Walker's narrative verdict on the death of Cpl Mark Wright in Afghanistan in September 2006.

In the verdict on the incident, in which Mark Wright lost his life and six other soldiers lost limbs, the coroner said:

That a brave soldier is lost in battle is always a matter of deep sadness but when that life is lost where it need not have been because of a lack of equipment and assets those responsible should hang their heads in shame

He listed eight major failures that contributed to the death of the soldier, including the fact that it was the downwash of the Chinook helicopter sent in to rescue the troops that set off the land mines.  His other findings on the causes or contributing factors were:

• There was a lack of appropriate UK helicopters in Afghanistan fitted with a winch
  
• There were administrative delays in sending an appropriate helicopter
• There was a failure not to ensure that there were sufficient batteries and radio battery charges at the observation posts and this serious failure reduced the ability to communicate by radio.
• There was  failure not to provide meaningful information to soldiers stationed at these observation posts about the threat of mines in the areas where they were to operate
• There were failures in the teaching methods used... that resulted in the soldiers, who operated at these forward observation posts, not appreciating that the traditional training to locate and mark mines, as part of clearing a path out of a mined area, were unsuitable for the terrain at Kajaki and that training failed to take account of the technology that was available to better address the detection of mines
• There was a serious failure to make an assessment of the threat from mines at Kajaki or to take account of local knowledge of the threat from mines
• here was a serious failure on the part of those responsible for briefing the Chinook helicopter command without making reference to a mine map that indicated the presence of an area known to be mined and the pilot unknowingly planned to land his aircraft in this area
• There was a serious failure to meet the NATO doctrine to provide, within one hour, advanced resuscitation measures
• There was an individual failure in that the officer responsible for passing updated information about the mine threat did not understand the information set out in the maps he had been provided with and therefore he was unable to interpret these maps

Yet despite these comprehensive findings, arrived after taking comprehensive evidence from all those involved, Rear Admiral Tony Johnstone-Burt appears on the BBC claiming there was no fault on behalf of the MOD.  He uses spin to deride the coroner's report and hides behind suggesting that this is a time for honouring the bravery a of Mark Wright and the other soldiers not for recriminations.

As an example, when asked specifically about the fact that it was the backwash form the Chinook helicopter that set off the land mines he states:

That not true at all... the facts are that the Chinook did go into the area and landed well clear, at least 40 to 50 metres away

But the coroner didn't make any claim suggesting that it was where the helicopter landed that set off the land mines.  It was the backdraft caused by hovering over the area that was to blame.

It is high time that the MoD showed far more respect in public to those who have laid down their lives for this country and accept that issues with regard to funding, equipment and training have caused and are still causing the deaths of British troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.  There has been much discussion about the 'covenant' between the Government and the Armed Forces and whether it has been broken in recent years.  Part of ensuring the covenant works is to admit openly when there have been failures and to do everything possible to correct them. There must be no more hollow words...

Undivided Attention

Gordon Brown has responded to David Camerons's attack this morning on his handling of the economy by saying that "My undivided attention is on taking this county through the difficult times as a result of a global problem that started in America". This echoes previous comments he has made, for instance when in April he said he 'sole foucs' was keeping the economy on track.

I'm sure our troops putting their lives on the line every day in Iran and Afghanistan will be comforted to know that, at a time when we are at war on two fronts, the Prime Minister's sole focus and undivided attention lays elsewhere...

Madonna stops financial crisis

(Guest post from David Beresford)

I am not one to typically wish ill on people, but thank heavens for the divorce announcement of Guy Ritchie and Madonna. For almost five minutes on the BBC evening news we were spared the on going misery of the economic turmoil, the escalation in unemployment and general doom and gloom.  This however was a brief respite, and this evenings Panorama, 'Britain in the red', provided the opportunity for the BBC to spend an hour analyzing where it all went wrong. 

Media in the UK is obsessed with making the economic situation appear catastrophic. The figures don't look great, but unemployment of forecast two million at the end on the year is still very low and compared to Europe not a concern. Inflation is set to fall sharply and the Bank will be aggressively cutting rates over the coming months. Property prices have faced a significant correction, but are only retracing the excessive rises over the last few years. Things are really not that bad. 

Well that is strictly not quite the case. The 'financial crisis', suitably more dramatic than a mere 'credit crunch', has pushed Robert Peston into a media celebrity. Just the very mention of his name makes me change channel. He is probably being lined up for the next reality celebrity show. Given his recent elevation in notoriety perhaps it should be 'Dancing on Icesave'?

The Maverick Goes to Washington

Several blogs and papers are reporting on the really wonderful and, in many ways, scary new website: palinaspresident.com

The site gives us an intriguing glimpse into what the Oval Office might be like if Sarah Palin occupied it. It's eerily believable! Go check it out and click around the Oval Office - see what it would be like if an Alaskan hockey mum maverick became President...

The Final Debate

Well, the final debate has finished. Reading the press it seems that the consensus of opinion is that McCain performed well - maybe his best yet. Obama held his own and was his usual calm self.  The instant polls mark it a victory to Obama though, as they have will all the previous debates.

But in contrast to those who thought that McCain had a very strong performance (for instance James Forsyth over at the Coffee House), I though McCain's performance seemed... odd.

He started off looking and sounding nervous, his eyes wide while facing the cameras, his pupils were dilated and he had a noticeably high blink rate.  He was constantly moving about on his chair as he talked.   His first line saying 'Americans are hurting' was the same first line he used at the previous 'Town-Hall' debate which negated any sincerity the line might have.  He then managed to mangle the rest of that opening statement.

I thought he sounded weak on healthcare, compared to Obama's direct and numbered plan. He knows this is a strong area for Obama and should have moved swiftly away from it.  It was interesting watching the debate on CNN to see just how high Obama's approval ratings were form a panel of voters when discussing healthcare.

On some issues he sounded crotchety, on others like he was making too big an effort to be animated. When he smiled at Obama's responses it looked like it was through gritted teeth. Indignation over the negative campaigning came across as false and hollow, especially given what's come out of the McCain camp recently.

I thought his 'share the wealth' attack was misplaced and parried well.   Even if it might play well with Republicans, no swing voter is going to object to the very rich paying a little more tax to fund cuts for the remaining 95% of the population.   McCain didn't talks about the 'middle classes', where as Obama's very first statement directly referred to them.  His 'Joe the Plumber' attack fell flat when Obama pointed out that no small business would pay healthcare fines, and that larger business has an obligation to their employees over health care provision.

It was a missed chance, for Obama did not have his best performance.  Apart from healthcare, many answers seems to meander.  Often it was clear that Obama was starting sentences with no idea what he was actually going to say in them.  Other sentences started on one track only to abruptly stop or change direction.  But when he was weak or dithering, McCain didn't spot it and go in for the kill.

Overall, I felt this was a clear win for Obama and a huge missed chance for McCain. I thought McCain looked like a desperate man and produced a very strange performance. I said yesterday that it might be the last chance saloon for McCain.  Well, he missed that last chance...

Last Chance Saloon

Tonight sees the final televised Presidential debate between Barack Obama and John McCain. It may well be John McCain's last chance to land some telling blows on his opponent and close the consistent deficit in the polls being reported daily.

Of course, there's still time to find a 'game-changing' moment after tonight, but with a likely audience of around 60 million Americans he is unlikely to be able to have an impact on so may voters - especially those swing voters. There is a chance the impact might be a negative one but at this stage it's looking like he's got nothing to lose.

To his credit, in recent days McCain seems to have become embarrassed by the ever more personal attacks of some of his more extreme (or ignorant?) supporters. His immediate put down at a rally of a woman he called Obama 'an Arab' was commendable. But if he isn't going to push the personal assassination of Obama does he have anything left?

The challenge he faces tonight is reported in Time today:

With less than three weeks to go before Election Day, the Republican presidential nominee faces a daunting overall task. He is so far behind in the national polls and in most key individual states that it is difficult to assemble a single combination of Electoral College votes to get him to the necessary 270. Despite Monday's unprecedented stock market rebound and Tuesday's campaign announcement introducing a new McCain economic policy proposal, voters largely continue to blame the Republicans for the financial crisis and the gloomy mood of an unstable nation. At the same time, the impact of Obama's massive fundraising advantage has hit full force, flooding battleground states with television ads, direct mail, and well-paid armies of local organizers. As Obama's lead has held (and even grown in some polls) pundits and political strategists in both parties have begun to assertively predict an easy Obama win, possibly producing a self-fulfilling wave.

I'm afraid I have to agree with the conclusion the article comes to and that is the only thing McCain may have left to fight for is his reputation:

McCain's best bet is to ignore all the advice he is getting about what he needs to accomplish and how he should comport himself: don't try to be all things to all strategists. Instead, he should say what he truly believes about his own proposals, about Obama's qualifications, and about the challenges the country faces, without an over-crafted strategy. His debate performances have improved, and he is always his most likeable, and most formidable when he uses his head and speaks from the heart. To slightly tweak the wise old song, dignity is just another word for nothing left to lose. McCain might lose the election, but he doesn't have to lose his reputation in the process.

McCain's task was always going to be an uphill battle.  He was only grudgingly adopted as his party's Presidential nominee in the absence of any other genuinely credible candidate (would it have been different had Rudy Giuliani had better strategic advice, or Fred Thompson had entered the race earlier?). He was facing an opponent with formidable organisation and money (and that would not have different had he been facing Hillary Clinton). He has been presented with a domestic and foreign policy legacy from George Bush that gives him and his party nothing to boast about.

If John McCain was to be President of the USA, then maybe the time was eight years ago when he was beaten in the nomination race by Bush.  But maybe he has something up his sleeve even more surprising (and it will need to be more effective and better thought out) than Sarah Palin. Maybe Obama will make a gaffe so big it will see a reversal in the polls.  But he must worry that the big maybe is tonight's debate - maybe Hampstead N.Y. is the last chance saloon...

A Good TIme to Bury Bad Policies?

This week we've had the loss of the 42-day extension to the Terrorism Bill and now the dropping of SATS for 14 years old - both up to know marketed to us as vital and important planks to Government policy.  It's obviously a good time right now to bury bad policies.

Now, this does raise the intriguing question of what's going to be next.  ID cards anyone?

A Fair Society

The Guardian is reporting that the Charities Minister, Kevin Brennan, is refusing to commit to a fund to provide a lifeline to charities hit by the Icelandic bank collapse.

It is strange times indeed, when every sinew is strained by a Labour Government to bail out the banks, but charities are left to hope with a 'wait and see' strategy.

So much for fairness...

Christmas Comes Early for Cameron?

If the Government ends up with large stakes in some of the UK's biggest banks - 60% of RBS and 40% of a merged Lloyds TSB and HBOS is being reported so far - then this could be great news for David Cameron.

If the banking crisis does get resolved to any extent and banks become stable again, then whoever wins the next election can look forward to the prospect of huge privatisation windfalls in a few years time.  Very handy to fund future tax cuts....

Christopher Hitchens For Obama

Time's Real Clear Politics Blog reports that Christopher Hitchens (author, journalist and general all round polemicist) has declared for Obama.   In an article in the web magazine Slate, Hitchens concludes:

It seems to me that the Republican Party has invited not just defeat but discredit this year, and that both its nominees for the highest offices in the land should be decisively repudiated, along with any senators, congressmen, and governors who endorse them.

I used to call myself a single-issue voter on the essential question of defending civilization against its terrorist enemies and their totalitarian protectors, and on that "issue" I hope I can continue to expose and oppose any ambiguity. Obama is greatly overrated in my opinion, but the Obama-Biden ticket is not a capitulationist one, even if it does accept the support of the surrender faction, and it does show some signs of being able and willing to profit from experience. With McCain, the "experience" is subject to sharply diminishing returns, as is the rest of him, and with Palin the very word itself is a sick joke. One only wishes that the election could be over now and a proper and dignified verdict rendered, so as to spare democracy and civility the degradation to which they look like being subjected in the remaining days of a low, dishonest campaign.

I wonder if his brother agrees...

14th October 1.20pm Update - now picked up by Daniel Finkelstein in Times Online's Comment Cnetral 

Palin-drome

The BBC is now reporting on the fantastic Tina Fey parodies of Sarah Palin.  Some might say that Sarah Palin is a parody herself (can there be any other explanation?).  Here is an example of what all the fuss is about. Enjoy...

42 Days Nonsense

With the House of Lords debating the 42 Day Detention issue and the Government facing a defeat, the airwaves this morning were full of Lord Harris pleading the case for Government's plans.  When asked on Radio 5 whether the plans had he support of the police, he said that every policeman he had spoken to was in full support of the the plans.

Now this statement, quite frankly, beggars belief.  The press has been full of quotes from the police, some expressing support, some expressing disquiet about the plans.

So how can Lord Harris make such a claim?

Either he is very careful which police he talks or he simply hasn't discussed the issue with the police.  If it's the latter than he an claim quite correctly that every policeman he has spoken to was in full support.  But more likely, he is simply not telling the truth. It is exactly the same tactic Government MPs use in justifying bad laws - how many times do they say  'all the constituents I talked to' or 'all the letters from my constituents' support their position.  It's just nonsense and shouldn't be let passed by interviewers...

Osborne Finds A Line

George Osborne's piece in the Evening Standard today sets just the right tone for the Tories with respect to the current banking crisis. They musn't be worried by being phased out of the news in the short term and the apparent recovery of Gordon Brown. They are playing the long term game and whatever apparent bounce Gordon Brown does receive, he will not be forgiven by the public come election time.

There is a chance, of course, that the election may come sooner rather than later now. Gordon Brown may take the opportunity, once the markets settle, to call the election on the basis of his handling of the economic crisis and to take advantage of any bounce in the polls he does get.  If Labour's approach remains 'this is no time for a novice', then this may be their most opportune time for an election.  But Labour will still lose. Handling the crisis now, and who the public wants to handle the economy for the next five years is a very different matter.  It will be seen, quite rightly, as an opportunistic move and the price will be paid for that.

But the approach to adopt now by the Conservatives doesn't matter on when there might be an election.  The approach adopted by Osborne in his piece is spot on.  It is a fivefold approach.  First, be seen to show support for the measures the Government is putting in place to deal with the crisis. Whether they agree with the proposals or not is irrelevent, they are the opposition and don't get to make the decisions. All they can do is show support.  Unity at a time of national crisis. He sets this out at the beginning of the article:

So we had to rescue the banks to rescue the whole economy. That is why David Cameron made the right judgment when he said this kind of recapitalisation might be necessary a week ago and why he showed the right leadership when he said the Conservatives would work constructively with other political parties on solving the immediate crisis.

The second part of the approach is to hold the Government to account for it's actions. Make clear that the crisis could and should have been avoided and that Brown and Darling have been reactive rather than proactive in dealing with it.

For we should never, ever have reached this point. There was nothing inevitable about it. Our banks could and should have behaved more responsibly and taken fewer risks. Indeed, those that did, like HSBC, have been rewarded for their prudence by emerging relatively unscathed. Our regulators could and should have spotted the risky bets many of the banks were taking and stopped them.

That's what some bank regulators around the world did, such as in Spain, but not here in Britain. And our government could and should have used the good years of global growth to set aside money for a rainy day. That's what many governments did by building up budget surpluses, such as they did in Australia and Sweden; but in Britain, Gordon Brown racked up the biggest budget deficit in the western world.

The next part is to give yourself a get-out clause for your support of the Government's rescue package in case it doesn't work. This was the mistake the Conservative's made with their support for the Iraq war which. It made it all too easy for the Government to mock their criticisms at a later date. Michael Howard should have said that in an advanced  democracy, on a matter as important as going to war it was the duty and responsibility of the Opposition to accept the word of the Government with resect to the Intelligence it has, and to support it fully. But that if the Government was found to have lied and misled us then it would be held to account in the strongest possible terms.  It would have given them such a strong moral case to force the resignation of Tony Blair earlier. But Osborne does provide the get-out clause in his article.

Let us sincerely hope that the billions of pounds of public funds we are putting at risk today do the job, bring some semblance of calm to the financial markets and start the credit flowing again through the veins of the economy. That shouldn't prevent us from seeing this for what it is: the final, sorry chapter of the Age of Irresponsibility. The moment when Gordon Brown was finally forced to confront the consequences of building a 10-year economic boom on a mountain of debt.

The forth element of the approach is to make sure that the Conservatives are seem to be coming up with ideas and proposals of their own. It shows that they are a government in waiting and if elected can deal with such a crisis effectively. It also has the added bonus that if the Government do adopt any of the proposals, they can claim all credit.  Even if, in reality, such proposals would have been looked at and considered by the Treasury for a long while now.  Again, Osborne does just that.

So what next? In the short term, we taxpayers must insist on certain conditions in return for our money. I will look carefully at the small print of the deals signed with the banks over the weekend. I want to make sure that everything is being done to keep the risk to the taxpayer to the minimum possible. That means asking existing shareholders first to stump up the cash. It means ensuring that the taxpayer benefits if the value of the banks increase as a result of this deal.

I will also want to know why the plan changed over recent days so that the Government is now potentially taking majority control of some of the biggest banks like Royal Bank of Scotland, and could put representatives on the board. Just five days ago, Mr Brown and Alistair Darling were telling us that appointments to the board were "entirely a matter for the bank". What changed?

In the medium term, we need to overhaul the banking practices and regulatory system that left us in this mess. When Gordon Brown scrapped the old system and replaced it 10 years ago with the new Financial Services Authority, he also removed the power of the Bank of England to keep an eye on overall levels of debt in the economy. I think that was a huge mistake. We Conservatives want to give that responsibility back to the Bank of England, so someone has the power to call time when bank borrowing gets too high.

Of course, this won't do anything to help families who are struggling now to pay their bills or who are worrying about their jobs. So the Government should adopt our plans to support people in the economic slowdown instead of leaving them to cope on their own. Conservative plans to freeze council tax, abandon the new car tax, keep businesses facing bankruptcy afloat and help low-income families with heating bills could all be put in place in the coming months.

Finally, in the long term, we all have to learn some profound lessons about the way free markets work. Laissez faire is dead. But let us not replace it with suffocating state control, for we know that it, too, leads to economic ruin. When I hear Gordon Brown claim that all the problems we face "came from America" and the expensive solutions devised around the world were "made in Britain", it makes me wonder whether he is prepared to learn anything from his own mistakes.

It was in Britain not America where families borrowed more than any in the world, and where we became so dependent on the success of financial services. It was in Britain not America that a government based its entire economic policy on the delusional belief that boom and bust had been abolished.

Lastly, and very importantly, highlight the fact that Gordon Brown seems to be enjoying managing this crisis. It will not go down well with the public if he is seen to smile and crow through he crisis. If he is seen to be benefitting personally from the crisis, than his days will be numbered.

But to regard today as a triumph, as some in government seem to do, is bizarre. And it misjudges the public mood. For this is no triumph. It is a necessary but desperate last-ditch attempt to prevent catastrophe.

George Osborne has shown himself to be adept at knowing exactly how to play out the crisis. He has gained in public profile while dealing extremely well with difficult questions in interviews. Without doubt he wants to be seen as a feasible Chancellor of the Exchequer. He wants to be seen to be intelligent, capable and dour. Remind you of anybody...

The State of Satire

I have been pondering over the state of television satire here in the UK and wondering why this is a genre of television where the US seems to be way ahead of us.

This struck me after reading almost as much about Tina Fey's portrayal of Sarah Palin on Saturday Night Live (SNL) as Sarah Palin herself. The impact her impersonation is having seems to be akin to that Spitting Image had over here on figures such as John Major, Ken Baker and David Steel. But Spitting image finished a long time ago.

In addition to SNL on NBC, the mainstays of US satire are Jon Stewart's The Daily Show and Stephen Colbert's The Colbert Report. These shows, which can be seen over here on More 4 and FX respectively (so go ahead and series link them on your Sky +), run for 4 nights a week through most of the year and are striking for their consistently high standards. Let's not forget Bill Maher who now has Real Time on HBO. All of these shows are mainstream late night viewing in the US and can attract major name guests.

As far as I can work out, UK television satire seems to be limited to quiz shows - Have I Got News For You and Mock the Week - and Marcus Brigstocke's The Late Edition on BBC4 which, for most of you who won't have seen it (a fair assumption given it's BBC4), is a cheap and pale imitation of The Daily Show.

So why is it that the US is so much better at this than us?

Well, the sheer quality of writing and on screen talent to start with. For The Daily Show and The Colbert Report to be able to put out such a consistently high standard of programme day after day must demand a lot from the writing team.  Of course, they can afford to pay for a bigger writing team and for better writers - but these shows are still relatively cheap shows to make for the Cable Networks.   The writing on The Late Edition became noticeably ever more lazy as the short series progressed, while the quiz shows derive their humour from being somewhat unscripted.  

My second point is my belief that the UK channels don't seem to have any faith in satirical television or the audience for it.   If they did, the money would be spent on the writers and presenters.  In an era where reality tv is king, can there really be demand for television that asks for a little intelligence from the viewer?  Well, I believe there is.   And to think we here in the UK tend to belittle Americans for being a little....stupid.

And then there's Mrs Thatcher.  Yes, some of the blame must lie at her door - albeit indirectly.  A lot of the comedians on television today cut their teeth in the Thatcher years and seem to have had a little difficulty adjusting to the fact that it's not the Tories in power anymore. Satire should always pose questions of government, but I often feel there is a tendency to reign in satire on this Government because of the feeling that too much damage would help the Tories (not that they need to much helping right now). Listen to Jeremy Hardy and Mark Steel on Radio 4's News Quiz for a couple of perfect examples of this.

Will this change?  I doubt it, but there is a ray of hope and his name is John Oliver. A British comedian who is part of Jon Stewart's Daily Show team (see my post earlier this week).  One day, he'll be back over here in the UK and I'm sure he will be looking to bring the production values he's seen from the show back here. In the meantime, I guess I'll make do with my daily fix of Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert. I suggest you do too...

Sporting Fashion

After the French rugby side Stade Francais announce a new kit that has a Warhol inspired design featuring the multicoloured images of Blanche de Castille, wife of Louis VIII and mother to Louis IX, BBC Sport Online remembers some of sports most shocking fashion moments.

Although I suspect some of these outfits may look bland and sober compared to what Austin Healey may end up wearing on the curret series of Strictly Come Dancing...

Conservative Bloggers for Obama

The well-known and respected Conservative blogger Iain Dale has risked the wrath of many on the right by declaring his support for Barack Obama in the November US elections.

His blog piece is a thoughtful, excellent and in places very personal analysis of why Conservatives should abandon their traditional support of the Republicans and the failings of the McCain campaign. He says:

I never thought the day would come when I would not support a Republican candidate. Ronald Reagan is one of my political inspirations, but he is probably turning in his grave when he sees what has happened to the party he led with so much distinction. It has turned from the Grand Old Party into a narrow religious sect. It has lost its compassion in a desperate rush towards social fundamentalism at the same time as losing all sense of fiscal responsibility.

I had hoped that a Giuliani candidacy would shake the Republican Party out of its trance, but it was not to be. I had then hoped that John McCain might show a vision for America and the world which could stand the test of a presidential campaign. I had hoped his experience and tenacity would provide a launchpad for four years of a very different kind of Republican administration. But McCain has failed in every conceivable way. He has performed poorly in the debates, he is an uninspiring speaker and his vision is as non existent as Gordon Brown's. His policy platform simply doesn't add up and his foreign policy ideas are as unappealing as many of George Bush's.

He continues with a succinct look of the dangers of a Sarah Palin Vice-Presidency:

And then there is Sarah Palin. As regular readers know, when she was chosen I said she would prove to be an inspired choice or a car crash. The initial evidence leant towards the former. Latterly, though, we have all seen too much evidence of the latter. I defended her against the appalling media onslaught against her, which I found sexist, insulting and worse. I simply could not bring myself to believe that a Republican presidential candidate could have chosen someone so ill-equipped for the job. But I was wrong, and I now accept that. McCain has not been a well man. He is 72 years old and has had cancer four times. His whole demeanour indicates that he might well not live through a whole four year term. Yet despite the intensity of the vetting process, he still chose Sarah Palin, a woman whose charisma temporarily masked her complete unsuitability to be one heartbeat away from the Presidency.

I find myself in absolute agreement with Iain.   I took the view some time ago that I would be supporting Barack Obama.  He provides some inspiration and hope to those, both at home and abroad who have seen it fade away over the last 8 years of a failed Bush Presidency.   Will Obama/Biden win in Novmember?  I believe 'yes they can'....

Base Rate Cut - Part 2

Following on from my post yesterday, the Telegraph is reporting that both Abbey and Nationwide have said they will not be passing on the half point drop in interest rates on to customers.

No building societies at all have offered customers any reductions in their borrowing costs, according to Moneyfacts.

Gordon Brown will be angered by the refusal to cut rates as he has publicly called for consumers to benefit from reductions in the base rate.

Part of the reason for lender's reluctance to pass on the reduction is that three month Libor - the rate which lenders use to price many of their mortgages - remains high, reflecting the lack of willingness among banks to lend to one another. Three month Libor rose slightly yesterday to 6.28 per cent.

Andrew Montlake, of Cobalt Capital, a mortgage broker, said: "Many lenders are showing their true colours right now. The Government has effectively bailed out the banking sector but some of the banks, by withdrawing their more competitive products or upping their tracker rates, are refusing to bail out existing homeowners and first-time buyers.

"For certain lenders, profits are clearly more important than the man on the street."

I anticipate big trouble ahead for banks and building societies from both politicians and the public if they are seen to take public funds for their own benefit and do nothing to help out their many struggling mortgage customers.

Adieu Euro?

A good piece in the Telegraph today by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, in which he questions whether the Eurozone countries have the collective will to put together a bail out plan for European Banks.

Who in the eurozone can do what Alistair Darling has just done in extremis to save Britain's banks, as this $10 trillion house of cards falls down? There is no EU treasury or debt union to back up the single currency. The ECB is not allowed to launch bail-outs by EU law. Each country must save its own skin, yet none has full control of the policy instruments.

Germany has vetoed French and Italian ideas for an EU lifeboat fund. The former knows exactly where that leads. It is a Trojan horse that will be used one day to co-opt German taxpayers into rescues for less Teutonic EMU kin. One can sympathise with Berlin. But sharing debts with Italy and Spain was implicit when they agreed to launch the euro. A shared currency entails obligations. We have reached the watershed moment when Germany has to decide whether to put its full sovereign weight behind the EMU project or reveal that it is not prepared to do so in a crisis.

This is a very dangerous set of circumstances for monetary union. Will we still have a 15-member euro by Christmas?

For the Euro to survive long term is has to be able to survive major crises.  That can only happen if Eurozone countries act together in the common interest.  But acting in the common interest only occurs when it coincides with the member nations own self-interests.  When it doesn't, as Ambrose Evans-Pritchard highlights, inaction and disagreement results.

When a Eurozone country is in a middle of a major crisis, at some point the government is going to decide to do what it is own interests and stick two fingers up to the common Eurozone interest - after all governments are re-elected by their own nation's voters and not by European voters.    When that happens, it and maybe all of us will be saying Adieu to the Euro...

Boris says "you're not fired"

What a pleasure it was today to finally hear London’s illustrious Mayor, Boris Johnson, discuss the ‘sacking’ of Met Chief Sir Ian Blair. Johnson, who reminds me of a gonk I once owned, was clear to stress that he did not fire Sir Ian, but instead told him politely to leave (pronto).

We also learnt of the use of Icelandic banks in holding some of the London City Councils money.  Boris, according to reliable sources, spent much of yesterday calling the help line to ascertain what was going on. I wonder whether he would have moved the money to a safer home last week had he not misplaced the internet log-in id...

Who will decide the US Election?

The Daily Show's very own 'senior polling analyst' John Oliver informs us....

Wasps Sting

Interesting to read that Josh Lewsey felled his fellow team-mate Danny Cipriani with a right hook during training after the young fly-half didn't perform too well during tackling drills.

I've been a huge fan of Josh Lewsey (another ex Bristol University student) ever since he managed to do what very few players ever managed to do - to face up, tackle, and bring to ground Jonah Lomu during a test against NZ in the notorious 'tour from hell' in 1998 when he was just 21.   I never understood why it took so long for Josh to be picked for the full England side after this.

However, during the awful start Wasps have had to the season one of the most conspicuous under-performers has been Josh Lewsey.   I think he can count himself very lucky that no team-mate decided to deck him for every mistake he has made so far this season - several of which led to tries.  He needs to concentrate on his own performance before laying into others

But it is probably a bad sign for the other teams in the Guinness Premiership that training is so fierce and competitive right now at Wasps. This shows a certain pride in standards that may have been lacking so far this season.   Given the watchful eye of Shaun Edwards, perhaps the only surprise is that it has taken so long to come about....

Base Rate Cut

The Bank of England has announced a 50 basis point interest cut, reducing the base rates from 5% to 4.5%.  This is welcome news and I do expect a further 50 basis point cut to follow soon.

However, as welcome as this news it will have no impact if the interest rate cut is not passed on to mortgage customers.   Banks will face a barrage of bad publicity if they don't.

Let's see what happens...

1.30pm Update - Halifax and Lloyds TSB have announced a half point cut in the standard variable mortgage rates.  That is good to see.   No announcement from Northern Rock as yet.  Surely the 'government owned' mortgage provider has to follow suit...

The US Botox Debate?

The first thing that strikes me watching the US presidential debate tonight is just how much botox must have been used before hand. Both Tom Brokaw and John McCain look in a constant state of surprise!

Brokaw is 68 years old, McCain is 72. At least they're both making every effort to make sure that there's at least one sector of the US economy that isn't struggling in these difficult times...

A Halt to Hostilities?

The BBC is reporting that one of Gordon Brown's leading critics within the party has said that "hostilites are over" and that the party must come together at a time of national crisis. On the face of it this seems to be good news for the beleaguered Prime Minister, but is it really?

With the Glenrothes by-election set for 6 November, there is only one more month before another potentially very damaging defeat to the party that will again test the patience of the dissidents within the party. The nature of truces is that they are easily broken....

But the real winner of any halt to hostilities is David Cameron. There is no doubt that he and his party want to go into the next election with a bruised, battered and deeply unpopular Gordon Brown as an opponent. The longer Brown holds on to the leadership, the harder it becomes for his party to replace him before a general election looms.

About This Blog

So this is it, we've finally started a blog. Please be patient with us as we get used to this daily blogging stuff and we gradually customize the site to make it more readable. But do come along on this adventure with us and enjoy...