McCain's Prank?

The Final Debate

Well, the final debate has finished. Reading the press it seems that the consensus of opinion is that McCain performed well - maybe his best yet. Obama held his own and was his usual calm self.  The instant polls mark it a victory to Obama though, as they have will all the previous debates.

But in contrast to those who thought that McCain had a very strong performance (for instance James Forsyth over at the Coffee House), I though McCain's performance seemed... odd.

He started off looking and sounding nervous, his eyes wide while facing the cameras, his pupils were dilated and he had a noticeably high blink rate.  He was constantly moving about on his chair as he talked.   His first line saying 'Americans are hurting' was the same first line he used at the previous 'Town-Hall' debate which negated any sincerity the line might have.  He then managed to mangle the rest of that opening statement.

I thought he sounded weak on healthcare, compared to Obama's direct and numbered plan. He knows this is a strong area for Obama and should have moved swiftly away from it.  It was interesting watching the debate on CNN to see just how high Obama's approval ratings were form a panel of voters when discussing healthcare.

On some issues he sounded crotchety, on others like he was making too big an effort to be animated. When he smiled at Obama's responses it looked like it was through gritted teeth. Indignation over the negative campaigning came across as false and hollow, especially given what's come out of the McCain camp recently.

I thought his 'share the wealth' attack was misplaced and parried well.   Even if it might play well with Republicans, no swing voter is going to object to the very rich paying a little more tax to fund cuts for the remaining 95% of the population.   McCain didn't talks about the 'middle classes', where as Obama's very first statement directly referred to them.  His 'Joe the Plumber' attack fell flat when Obama pointed out that no small business would pay healthcare fines, and that larger business has an obligation to their employees over health care provision.

It was a missed chance, for Obama did not have his best performance.  Apart from healthcare, many answers seems to meander.  Often it was clear that Obama was starting sentences with no idea what he was actually going to say in them.  Other sentences started on one track only to abruptly stop or change direction.  But when he was weak or dithering, McCain didn't spot it and go in for the kill.

Overall, I felt this was a clear win for Obama and a huge missed chance for McCain. I thought McCain looked like a desperate man and produced a very strange performance. I said yesterday that it might be the last chance saloon for McCain.  Well, he missed that last chance...

Last Chance Saloon

Tonight sees the final televised Presidential debate between Barack Obama and John McCain. It may well be John McCain's last chance to land some telling blows on his opponent and close the consistent deficit in the polls being reported daily.

Of course, there's still time to find a 'game-changing' moment after tonight, but with a likely audience of around 60 million Americans he is unlikely to be able to have an impact on so may voters - especially those swing voters. There is a chance the impact might be a negative one but at this stage it's looking like he's got nothing to lose.

To his credit, in recent days McCain seems to have become embarrassed by the ever more personal attacks of some of his more extreme (or ignorant?) supporters. His immediate put down at a rally of a woman he called Obama 'an Arab' was commendable. But if he isn't going to push the personal assassination of Obama does he have anything left?

The challenge he faces tonight is reported in Time today:

With less than three weeks to go before Election Day, the Republican presidential nominee faces a daunting overall task. He is so far behind in the national polls and in most key individual states that it is difficult to assemble a single combination of Electoral College votes to get him to the necessary 270. Despite Monday's unprecedented stock market rebound and Tuesday's campaign announcement introducing a new McCain economic policy proposal, voters largely continue to blame the Republicans for the financial crisis and the gloomy mood of an unstable nation. At the same time, the impact of Obama's massive fundraising advantage has hit full force, flooding battleground states with television ads, direct mail, and well-paid armies of local organizers. As Obama's lead has held (and even grown in some polls) pundits and political strategists in both parties have begun to assertively predict an easy Obama win, possibly producing a self-fulfilling wave.

I'm afraid I have to agree with the conclusion the article comes to and that is the only thing McCain may have left to fight for is his reputation:

McCain's best bet is to ignore all the advice he is getting about what he needs to accomplish and how he should comport himself: don't try to be all things to all strategists. Instead, he should say what he truly believes about his own proposals, about Obama's qualifications, and about the challenges the country faces, without an over-crafted strategy. His debate performances have improved, and he is always his most likeable, and most formidable when he uses his head and speaks from the heart. To slightly tweak the wise old song, dignity is just another word for nothing left to lose. McCain might lose the election, but he doesn't have to lose his reputation in the process.

McCain's task was always going to be an uphill battle.  He was only grudgingly adopted as his party's Presidential nominee in the absence of any other genuinely credible candidate (would it have been different had Rudy Giuliani had better strategic advice, or Fred Thompson had entered the race earlier?). He was facing an opponent with formidable organisation and money (and that would not have different had he been facing Hillary Clinton). He has been presented with a domestic and foreign policy legacy from George Bush that gives him and his party nothing to boast about.

If John McCain was to be President of the USA, then maybe the time was eight years ago when he was beaten in the nomination race by Bush.  But maybe he has something up his sleeve even more surprising (and it will need to be more effective and better thought out) than Sarah Palin. Maybe Obama will make a gaffe so big it will see a reversal in the polls.  But he must worry that the big maybe is tonight's debate - maybe Hampstead N.Y. is the last chance saloon...